No bets resolved yet — the curve starts when the first market settles. A ~6% win rate means long flat/down stretches between upset wins; judge by ROI over many bets.
ROI by No-entry price band★ 3–8c = validated slippage-robust sweet spot
Band
Bets
Won
Win%
Staked
P&L
ROI
Open Positions
Market
Cat
Entry
Stake
Fav
Closes
No open positions
Resolved Bets
Market
Cat
Entry
Outcome
P&L
When
No resolved bets yet
Status
--
Settled
--
NO-won rate
--
band did not hit
Annualized ROI
--
on capital base
Starting capital
--
since --
Realized P&L
--
Avg NO entry
--
price paid · 0.85-0.94 band
Cumulative Realized P&L ($) — settled daily bands
No bands resolved yet — daily temp markets settle overnight. Negative skew: many small NO wins, rare correlated band-hit losses; judge by realized P&L over many resolutions, not annualized %.
Realized by city★ NYC/CHI/MIA high = prior "core" (even its +88% claim fails point-in-time)
City
Settled
NO won
Win%
Staked
P&L
ROI
Open Positions
City
Band (buy NO)
NO@
Ct
Cost
Net/ct
Resolves
No open positions
Resolved
City
Band
NO@
Outcome
P&L
When
No resolved bands yet
⚠ BACKTEST on real Polymarket lines (already-played 2026 internationals, leak-free: model trained ≤2024). Entry = Polymarket 3-leg 1x2 at T-24h; CLV vs the Polymarket close. Verdict: NO-GO — the player-sum model loses (−62.8% over 153 bets) with negative avg CLV; it over-prices longshots vs a sharp market. Paper P&L is not edge; CLV is the gate. See reports/pm_backfill.md.
Status
--
Bankroll
--
$10k start + realized P&L
Avg CLV (the gate)
--
vs Betfair close · >0 = beat it
Realized ROI
--
descriptive only — NOT the gate
Realized P&L
--
Settled
--
Cumulative Realized P&L ($) — settled WC matches
No matches settled yet — the curve starts when the first WC fixture resolves. The model only TIES the nation-goals naive (Brier 0.6607 vs 0.6629) and is NO-GO on CLV in backtests; the live edges sit on draws/longshots = a calibration gap with a sharp exchange. Judge by CLV vs the close, not paper P&L.
No matches settled yet — the curve starts when the first bet resolves. The 10%/yr gate is a near-zero raw-edge bar at a sub-day horizon, so the book bets essentially any positive-EV disagreement with the consensus line. Judge by CLV vs the close, not paper P&L.
Open Positions
Match
Pick
Odds
Model p
Mkt p
EV
Ann.
Stake
Event
No open positions
Resolved
Match
Pick
Odds
Close
Outcome
P&L
CLV
No resolved matches yet
Status
--
Bankroll
--
$10k start + realized P&L
Avg CLV (the gate)
--
vs last pre-KO line · >0 = beat it
Realized ROI
--
descriptive only — NOT the gate
Realized P&L
--
Settled
--
Cumulative Realized P&L ($) — settled football bets
No bets settled yet — the curve starts when the first match resolves (90′ result via API-Football). At a sub-day horizon 10%/yr is a near-zero raw-edge bar, so this opens on essentially any positive-EV disagreement with the book. Judge by CLV vs the close, not paper P&L.
No bets resolved yet — the curve starts when the first market settles. Moderate-No (20-30c) wins ~29% — steadier than cheap-No; judge by ROI over many bets.
ROI by No-entry price band★ 20–30c core = liquid sweet spot (vol≥$25k)
Band
Bets
Won
Win%
Staked
P&L
ROI
Open Positions
Market
Cat
Entry
Stake
Fav
Closes
No open positions
Resolved Bets
Market
Cat
Entry
Outcome
P&L
When
No resolved bets yet
Status
--
Settled
--
NO-won rate
--
band did not hit
Annualized ROI
--
on capital base
Starting capital
--
since --
Realized P&L
--
Avg NO entry
--
NO price · cheap range bands
Cumulative Realized P&L ($) — settled daily bands
No bands resolved yet — BTC/ETH daily-range markets settle at day end. Judge by realized P&L and the maker fill-rate over many resolutions.
Realized by asset★ WATCHLIST-grade — measure maker fill-rate before any real deploy
Asset
Settled
NO won
Win%
Staked
P&L
ROI
Open Positions
Asset
Band (buy NO)
NO@
Ct
Cost
Net/ct
Resolves
No open positions
Resolved
Asset
Band
NO@
Outcome
P&L
When
No resolved bands yet
Total Realized P&L
--
Combined ROI
--
P&L / staked, all books
Live books
--
A1↔A3 corr
--
daily realized P&L
Combined cumulative realized P&L ($) — all paper books
No settled bets across any book yet — the combined curve starts at the first resolution.